The Iran War Has Shaken Up Asset Prices—From Gold to Oil and Bitcoin—After Its First Month

Key Takeaways

• Precious metals have underperformed the S&P 500, and crude oil outperformed the benchmark index, since the start of the Iran war.

• Bitcoin edged out U.S. stocks, taking on the haven role that gold was expected to take as tensions in Middle East bubbled over.

The war in Iran snapped trends, sending assets off in different directions.

Crude oil prices surged to record highs since the U.S. and Israel’s initial strikes on Iran a month ago. Brent futures, the international benchmark, late Friday traded at around $106 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. yardstick, at just under $100, levels not seen since the pandemic. Between the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade passageway, and the destruction to the energy complex in the Middle East, the shock to the global energy market has started to draw comparisons to historic oil crises. And President Donald Trump’s moves this week to de-escalate tensions with Iran, pausing military attacks in a bid to negotiate a hard-to-land deal, don’t appear to have soothed crude markets.

Higher crude prices would also appear to have changed the Federal Reserve’s posture to slightly hawkish, with traders now pricing in the potential of interest rates going up, not down—the knock-on effects of which are also reflected in metals and crypto. (For a look at the stock market’s winners and losers, click here.)

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

The war in Iran would appear to have shuffled the performance ranks of commodities, putting crude oil at the top, and precious metals at the bottom after doing the opposite in 2025.

Precious metals, including gold and silver, have tanked as momentum behind the two best trades of 2025 dissipated, disappointing investors who expected haven assets to deliver some protection from the geopolitical uncertainty. The U.S. dollar, which has gradually declined in status, ticked back up, and—because of its inverse relationship to gold prices—added downside pressure to precious metal prices.

Meanwhile bitcoin, which had been in decline since hitting all-time highs in October, was a safer haven than gold. Prices aren’t much higher than they were at the start of the war in Iran, but the cryptocurrency is doing better than the S&P 500.

As of Friday afternoon, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) are down 14% and 25%, respectively, since the start of the war. The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), is up 51%, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is flat.

Spot gold prices are still aloft, at about $4,530 per troy ounce, in spite of the recent underperformance. Silver is sitting at around $70. Bitcoin is near $66,000.

Even if the war in Iran were to be called off, and the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, markets may not revert to where they were at the top of the year, given the damage already done—at least for crude oil prices, on which much would appear to hinge.

It would still take three or four months to fully restore crude oil production, Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets’ global head of commodity strategy, said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. The big question, she said, is “when are we getting the Strait of Hormuz open again.”